Posts Tagged Florida

Slavin again? (groan)

In his incoherent scree …, I mean in his blog: “Clean Up St. Augustine,” shrill noisemaker Slavin returns for more silliness:

Yet ROB FIELDS ululates as only a wannabee apparatchik can, like a hog caught under a gate.

Why do the heathen rage?

Because Faye Armitage is “the real deal” and HEATHER BEAVEN is a fake, just like CLYDE MALLOY before her. Like CLYDE MALLOYBEAVEN seems like a “Stealth” candidate, with no detectable pre-existing positions that would make one believe she is a Democrat.

Is HEATHER BEAVEN a shameless opportunist?

With some of the same staff (and funders), FIELDS is mistaken to dubBEAVEN “the frontrunner” when no one has ever voted for BEAVEN, and 2008 Democratic nominee Faye Armitage earned nearly 150,000 votes last year against reprobate Representative JOHN LUIGI MICA for the Seventh Congressional District race.

Beaven has no staff in common with Malloy. There’s also not more than a thousand bucks worth of donor overlap.
Beaven and Malloy are both lifelong Democrats.
What Mr. Slavin fails to mention is that elections are not tests of character or fairy-tale struggles against evil, they are numbers games, technical exercises in the mobilization and utilization of resources.
It’s rather bizarre that Slavin repeatedly refers to Malloy and Beaven as “stealth” candidates, because it is Ms. Armitage who is running a stealth campaign. Filing in April, she has missed two FEC reporting deadlines. She illegally refuses to report her fund-raising totals and sources. What is Armitage afraid for us to know?
Ms. Armitage has failed to put together the team necessary to beat Mica. This General Election will be more difficult than last cycle, because turnout will be lower. Armitage is serving as a spoiler. She will not campaign, will not raise money, but she refuses to drop out, clearing the field for Beaven to attract support from people waiting to see what the previous nominee will do. Since the Primary is only two months before the General, this could potentially swing an otherwise contestable election in Mica’s favor.
Ms. Armitage is the stealth candidate, pretending to be a Democrat while helping keep John Mica in office.

Beaven has no staff in common with Malloy. There’s also not more than a thousand bucks worth of donor overlap.

Beaven and Malloy are both lifelong Democrats.

What Mr. Slavin fails to mention is that elections are not tests of character or fairy-tale struggles against evil, they are numbers games, technical exercises in the mobilization and utilization of resources.

It’s rather bizarre that Slavin repeatedly refers to Malloy and Beaven as “stealth” candidates, because it is Ms. Armitage who is running a stealth campaign. Filing in April, she has missed two FEC reporting deadlines. She illegally refuses to report her fund-raising totals and sources. What is Armitage afraid for us to know?

Ms. Armitage has failed to put together the team necessary to beat Mica. This General Election will be more difficult than last cycle, because turnout will be lower. Armitage is serving as a spoiler. She will not campaign, will not raise money, but she refuses to drop out, making it more difficult for Beaven to attract support from people waiting to see what the previous nominee will do. Since the Primary is only two months before the General, this could potentially swing an otherwise contestable election in Mica’s favor.

Ms. Armitage is the stealth candidate, pretending to be a Democrat while helping keep John Mica in office.

By the way, my name is “Field,” not “Fields.” It’s written right in the comment field and everything. I already knew you can’t write, but I thought even a disbarred attorney could read.

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Armitage Supporters Are Getting A Tad Squirrelly

faye--armitage-3397-20090216-5Beaven, HeatherArmitage Supporter Ed Slavin, in his blog “Clean Up St. Augustine” went a bit too far in his search for contrast between his favored candidate for FL-7 and apparent front-runner Heather Beaven. In his post supporting Republican incumbent John Mica’s bid to ban smartphones and laptops from US airlines, Slavin got a bit carried away:

It is a matter of air safety. When we fly, we don’t want to die.

While lithium batteries have caught on fire, the number of times this has happened is dwarfed by the billions of units in service around the world. Clearly, the facts do not justify the kind of hyperbolic language on display in this post.

Likewise, Slavin’s spin of this issue as an attack on Beaven was a bit out of left field:

Heather Beaven, the Stealth corporativist candidate from the “monumental, $20 million dollar, growth campaign” that teaches workers nothing about OSHA.

Heather Beaven: unsafe at any speed?

Wait, what?

Reading this kind of bizarre vitriol, I was compelled to respond:

Banning lithium batteries from aircraft would mean eliminating all laptops and smartphones from air travel. This is unrealistic in the extreme, because such devices have become indispensable tools for the business traveler. Airlines have recently added WiFi to their flights in recognition of this fact. Every airport in the US has facilities for wireless networking. These devices allow business travelers to receive, send, and edit data and voice communications with their home offices, out-of-town clients, and suppliers. Banning or confiscating such devices would do much to render business travel impractical.

There have been incidents of batteries catching fire, but of the billions of units in service, the number of documented fires have numbered in the hundreds. Considering the percentage of a device’s life represented by a trans-continental flight, such a ban would represent a gross over-reaction to a very small threat. Even the arch-paranoiac Dick Cheney only applied a one-percent doctrine to his worst-case models. This would be more like a .00001 percent model, and Cheney was talking about nukes!

Look, these things have been in widespread use for a decade, and there are billions of air-miles logged a year. If this were a danger worth imposing this kind of cost, it really would have happened by now.

Furthermore, this issue is hardly the focus of Ms. Beaven’s campaign, and does not justify the inflammatory ad hominem tactics represented in this post. There are plenty of points of disagreement between Armitage and Beaven which could have been explored here, but the Bush-style scaremongering displayed here is unworthy of you or this fine blog.

It’s hard to understand why such an erratic campaigner as Armitage inspires such fervent loyalty. Whatever the political qualities of Beaven, at least she has been running a campaign. She’s been building a team, making appearances, raising money, hiring consultants, and using the media. Armitage has filed no campaign finance reports, has hired no staff, made few public appearances, and refuses to return repeated calls about her status as a candidate. When she ran last year, she showed little aptitude for retail politics. She was able to win the primary based on the personal loyalties of fellow health care activists in her home county, but got beaten by more than twenty points in the most favorable environment  for Democrats in this district since 2002. I’m personally prepared to blame myself for her primary win in 2008, but her idiosyncratic interpersonal style is a strange choice for someone who aspires to elected office. Apparently, her combative and quixotic approach is contagious.

Banning lithium batteries from aircraft would mean eliminating all laptops and smartphones from air travel. This is unrealistic in the extreme, because such devices have become indispensable tools for the business traveler. Airlines have recently added WiFi to their flights in recognition of this fact. Every airport in the US has facilities for wireless networking. These devices allow business travelers to receive, send, and edit data and voice communications with their home offices, out-of-town clients, and suppliers. Banning or confiscating such devices would do much to render business travel impractical.
There have been incidents of batteries catching fire, but of the billions of units in service, the number of documented fires have numbered in the hundreds. Considering the percentage of a device’s life represented by a trans-continental flight, such a ban would represent a gross over-reaction to a very small threat. Even the arch-paranoiac Dick Cheney only applied a one-percent doctrine to his worst-case models. This would be more like a .00001 percent model, and Cheney was talking about nukes!
Look, these things have been in widespread use for a decade, and there are billions of air-miles logged a year. If this were a danger worth imposing this kind of cost, it really would have happened by now.
Furthermore, this issue is hardly the focus of Ms. Beaven’s campaign, and does not justify the inflammatory ad hominem tactics represented in this post. There are plenty of points of disagreement between Armitage and Beaven which could have been explored here, but the Bush-style scaremongering displayed here is unworthy of you or this fine blo

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Meek: Not Losing Senate Race

44510343I’ve liked Kendrick Meek and his campaign ever since I met him in January. Super GF Lisa was a big fan and tried to get us jobs on the campaign. We failed at this, but remain committed supporters of the Congressman, securing hundreds of petition signatures in Volusia County. A gregarious but serious man with witty but bearable children and an impossibly attractive and sharp wife, not liking Kendrick Meek is a symptom of some personality disorder. While he is undeniably the Kendrick Meek of the manicured life and the high-flying friends, he’s also surprisingly Progressive and committed to the plight of Americans on the edge. And yet, even though he is running a well-organized, well-funded, and well-connected campaign, the Party seems to find ways of marginalizing the man, like giving him the tail-end time slot after the one-sentence speeches by the House candidates, while the delegates were eating lunch. He faced a half-empty room and gave a rousing speech to people who were already backing him, while freshmen like Alan Grayson got choice slots to fuel his re-election campaign to the US House.

On Sunday Morning at the State Conference, after the AG’s debate, The Kendrick Meek campaign held a combined press/new media event with three professional reporters and a handful of bloggers. The campaign’s new chair and the newish new media director were present and began the briefing before the arrival of the candidate. They were delighted about a poll that showed the Crist-Meek gap to be not 18 points, as last month’s poll showed, but a mere 14. Hey, advocacy is their job. They had it partially broken down and showed where Crist’s numbers were soft, which we knew. A great deal of emphasis was placed on an 800 LV phone poll with an MoE of 4.

But it’s hard to imagine a poll can be meaningful 13 months out when one’s opponent is the sitting governor of a state with huge budget liabilities and angry citizens. Crist’s decision to leave the Governor’s mansion and run for the seat mid-term in the middle of a budget crisis has always seemed callous to me. When some of my more Republican-friendly acquaintances told me he was going to do it, I suggested that there were cheaper methods of political suicide. Chalk another one up for the genius.

The real reporters questioned the validity of the poll, and I had technical questions. The real reporters asked inside baseball questions about the emergence of yet more penniless candidates in a crowded field that includes safe-seat fixture Corrine Brown from bizarrely gerrymandered District 3 . By this time, Kendrick had come in and addressed the reporter’s questions in a even, focused tone I found effective. He then went on to criticize a St. Pete Times reporter for a story that reported the empty room the day before without explaining why the room was empty. The effect was deceptive, but Meek was not making his case. There’s no way to complain about coverage and sound above the fray. Reporters go for the superficial. It’s their way of being “fair.” Analysis is spin. Besides, they might all be replaced with fashion reporters next Tuesday, so who the hell cares?

I saw near-universal Meek support among the delegates. Meek stickers were at least as omnipresent as Obama stickers in the parking lot. There is no doubt he will win the nomination, and in that sense the St. Pete piece was deceptive, because it strongly implied the nomination was up for grabs.

Reporters asked repeatedly about third-quarter fundraising numbers, which were still not public. The Chair delayed releasing the numbers until they finished spinning the poll. Then he announced that the campaign raised just under $800,000 in the first quarter, not enough to catch up with Crist. He promised three major fundraisers in the fourth quarter, two with former President Bill Clinton. If he can’t crack a million and a half then, something will be wrong.

One of the odd moments was when a reporter seemed on the verge of asking whether a black man could be elected Senator in Florida. He didn’t want to ask that question and it sort of visibly morphed into whether a man from Miami was electable statewide.

This was my first media event, so I’ll suspend judgement. The overwhelming impressions were the dearth of political savvy among the bloggers, the cynicism of the press, the tightly controlled candidate, and the transparent spin of the campaign staff. Other than two numbers and two scheduled events, I was no more enlightened than when I got there. Since everyone in the room had a Blackberry, it might have been avoided altogether.

Honestly, I’m worried Crist might knock Kendrick off, just by name-recognition alone. But it’s a hell of a long time between here and there. By choosing to get on the ballot by petition, he’s putting his money into voter contact where the response rates are higher. Crist will thus be able to out-TV him in the General. Countering that in the field will take the kind of specialized social-media tools we saw in the Obama campaign and that are as yet unseen in Meek’s campaign. The whole strategy is a risky bet. Large states are always won on television. Clinton won most large states in the primaries. The trend is aggravated by the likely low turnout in a mid-term race. If the petition strategy has a hidden advantage, this is it. Turnout operations are easier when you have all those voter contacts.

Anyway, good luck to Kendrick and his team. Hint: always feed the reporters. Worked for George W.

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A Star is Born

At the 2009 Florida State Democratic Conference on Saturday, the organizers arranged the usual dog-and-pony show, putting telegenic Democrats on giant screens in front of cheering Democrats in what can only be described as a sporting event. Every forceful phrase was rewarded with applause and cheers. There is always something North Korean about the atmosphere at a party event. During Bill Nelson’s address, however, the North Korean vibe was broken by hundreds of angry hecklers screaming “Public Option!” at every pause in the Senator’s remarks. Nelson kept to his rambling speech, talking about everything but the issue on everyone’s mind, even taking refuge in a gratuitous display of Obama-humping over the catcalls. Finally, he came to the subject of the health care bill to cheers and more calls of “Public Option!” When Nelson pledged to support a watered-down version of the public option proposed by New York Senator Chuck Schumer, the crowd let him finish in peace.

Next to speak was 8th District Congressman Alan Grayson, who recently opined that the Republican health reform plan was for sick people to die quickly. The crowd lost its collective senses. Wild applause filled the hall. I had thought that party leaders may have been nervous about Grayson’s incendiary language, but they were clearly encouraging it by giving him a prime time slot after the keynote. Grayson, of course, stole the show, repeating his greatest hits to wild acclaim and clearly eating it up. He proposed that the Democratic Party be renamed the Conscience Party and the Republican Party the Party of Selfishness. The language came off a bit cynical and pandering, but the crowd was wholly uncritical. There’s no doubt there’s a great deal of sincere feeling behind Grayson’s rhetoric, but the simplicity of the language seems crafted. He was one of the few mainstream Southern Democrats in recent years to approach a critique of conservatism itself. Grayson’s popularity holds out hope of a new era of Progressive dominance in the Party.

The Congressman has been making the rounds on television and distributing his clips on the Web. His fundraising has been brisk, and it appears he will not have to use his own money this cycle. Of course, Congressman Grayson’s popularity comes at a bad time. He probably will not enter the Senate race this late, and the next shot will be Nelson’s seat in 2012. He might take it, but the Party would seek to stop him. The only other prize is re-election, which seems like a lot of effort for a small reward. Acclaim like this never lasts.

One wonders if this was calculated or just, as one observer out it, “Alan being Alan.”

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Because We Can

fa_2009_conferenceI just got back from the Florida Democratic Party’s 2009 State Conference. Like in 2007, I was struck by the contrast between the sparkling talent on offer from some of the party’s candidates and the lackluster leadership and organization of the event. The schedule, as usual, could be classified as Science Fiction, and the dominant experience during daylight hours seemed to be hordes of confused-looking delegates trying to find events moved halfway across the building.

Michael Arth, the serious but seriously dark-horse candidate for Governor, rented a table and occupied it on Friday to find it moved to the ghetto on Saturday morning with all his campaign materials “placed in storage” without his knowledge. (Where I come from, we call this stealing.) He chose to confront his tormentors politely through the viewfinder of a video camera, so of course venue staff helped him move to an acceptable location near some actual humans. Apparently, the rule is to speak softly and shoot in HD. Nobody likes to be a jerk on YouTube.

The Party’s consistently antagonistic attitude toward Mr. Arth and other long shots for statewide office mystifies me. The concern expressed is that disunity threatens victory in 2010, but of course the nastiness just gives him publicity among Democrats dissatisfied with Tallahassee, which is more than a few. On their own, these candidates would get their 25 percent and be gone. Who would notice or care? Why run the risk of bad press? Giving all the minor candidates for Governor access to favorable table locations, speaking engagements, email lists and other goodies would cost the party very little, disrupt events less, and build goodwill among those Progressives inclined to view the arbitrary exercise of power darkly. It certainly wouldn’t threaten Ms. Sink’s all but certain run to the nomination. Their answer is that they’re not required to do that, which is a non sequitur.

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The Myth of Bipartisanship

225px-Alan_GraysonWe have been assaulted for more than a year with the most extreme claims about the President. He was a secret extremist Muslim, we were told. No, a radical black supremacist Christian, wait, a socialist terror sympathizer. When he won the election last fall, I was stupid enough to believe that the rhetoric had peaked. Hah!

When he proposed the centerpiece of his domestic agenda, he carefully adhered to his campaign pledge of apolitical politics. He sat the “stakeholders” (vested financial interests, not the patients whose lives were at stake) at the table and gave away the winning run before kickoff. Single-payer proposals that would have improved standards of care, controlled costs, and guaranteed universal access were abandoned in favor of a wishy-washy “public option” that would accomplish none of those things. He declared again and again his intention to reach a “bipartisan” deal with Republicans in Congress, bending over backwards to avoid pissing off conservatives.

So, of course, town halls across America were surrounded by gangs of lunatics toting guns, warning of looming totalitarianism, and comparing our soft-spoken moderate President to Hitler. The lunacy was not limited to the parking lots, either. Republican lawmakers were gleefully spreading sleaze about “death panels” and decrying Democrats’ non-existent intention to “pull the plug on Grandma.” So much for the tone.

So, when Congressman Alan Grayson suggested that the Republicans’ Health Care Plan was for sick people to “die quickly,” I was shocked to hear Republicans complain about the incivility of it all. What national debate on health care were they watching? Perhaps they had stepped through an inter-dimensional rift from a parallel Earth where they had not spent the summer inciting domestic terrorists to kill Democratic politicians.

Congressman Grayson’s remark was relatively civil, by the standards of this debate. It was also relatively factual. Although prone to superficial stunts, Mr. Grayson’s commitment to his constituents is undeniable. He is rightly concerned about a monstrously dysfunctional health care system that is simply unsustainable.  The loss of life from our broken system is equivalent to 15 9-11s every year. This is an absurd and intolerable situation, and the Congressman’s edgy rhetoric is more than justified. While the Republicans chase phantom nightmares of totalitarianism, Americans are subjected to a kafkaesque labyrinth of insurance company rules as they watch their husbands and wives, their children and brothers, their fathers, sisters and mothers die when basic medical care could have saved their lives.

Courageous Progressives like Mr. Grayson are to be congratulated, but more importantly, they need our support. Please make sure the Republicans can’t knock him off next year by donating today.

Forget bipartisanship. To steal from Aaron Sorkin, our job is not to end the fight. It’s to win it. Hundreds of thousands of lives are in the balance, as is the economic security of our nation.

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Seventh District Candidates’ Forum

Tonight, in Daytona Beach, the three Democratic candidates for Congress in Florida’s Seventh District spoke to a handful of Progressive Democrats. Well, two of them did.

Stephen Bacon entered the venue seemingly confused by the existence of other candidates for the nomination and it went downhill from there. Before the candidates were scheduled to speak, he was trying to speak over the PDA organizer who was running the meeting. He was asked to yield the floor and advised that he would have a chance to address the meeting along with the other candidates. Instead of ceding the point, he chose to argue. When the organizer’s father confronted him for his rudeness, he chose to leave. “Bacon fried himself tonight,” said Lisa Walker, Beaven’s campaign manager.

First to speak was Heather Beaven, the Palm Coast education activist. She spoke for five minutes, covering her biography and making the case that her bio gave her a better grasp of the issues than the out-of-touch Washington crowd. She fielded questions about single-payer health care (she’s for it) and tax policy (she has no litmus test for tax reform, but she’s pro-unfunded-mandate reform and concerned that PAYGO could be abused by conservatives) She was coherent and concise.

Next to speak was Faye Armitage, the 2008 nominee for the Seventh District seat. Her message was more fragmented, blending a laundry list of policies with a half-formed argument that her background as an economist presented an alternative to the out-of-touch Washington crowd. (See a pattern?) Still, this was a clear improvement over her performances in the 2008 cycle, and her more Progressive issue positions were a better fit for the room than the somewhat more centrist Mrs. Beaven.

The room was well to the left of the majority of Primary voters, however, and the evening did nothing to reverse my impression that Beaven is the more likely choice to beat John Mica in 2010.

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Steve Schale Endorses Kendrick Meek for US Senate

Kendrick MeekMr. Schale, the director of Florida for Change, is an immensely influential Democrat whose endorsement of Rep. Meek is an acknowledgment that the Primary race is all but over.

The General election, however, is a different matter altogether. As of the last reporting period, Rep. Meek has raised $2,680,339, while Gov. Christ has raised $4,399,948. Large majorities of both candidates’ funding is from individual contributions, so this is a trend likely to continue.

In a state with four major media markets, money is the most important factor. Unless Congressman Meek can close the fundraising gap, he will lose this race. He’s relied a little more on PAC money than Crist, so that avenue is likely to be dried up for him. He can, however, tap the pockets of national Democrats, thanks to an apparent relationship with Bill Clinton, who appeared at his first fundraiser.

Good luck to the Congressman.

Give to Kendrick here.

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Just In Case You Thought I Was Being Unfair To Stephen Bacon …

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Party at Flagler Airport! Woot! Woot!

Heather Beaven at Announcement SpeechOn Tuesday night, Heather Beaven had her announcement event at Flagler County Airport for the Seventh District House seat. The unfulfilled threat of rain moved the venue from the steps of the Flagler Courthouse to a bar on the edge of the airport. About a score of supporters showed up, sprinkled with seven staffers and volunteers. The candidate’s husband introduced the first speaker, the chairman of Beaven’s thesis committee, Henry Thomas.

Dr. Thomas praised Ms. Beaven’s intelligence, tenacity and integrity, then Mrs. Beaven spoke. She has an unusual style of combining soft Midwestern tones with chopped, two-step cadences. Her speech was a mixture of folksy idealism and polished rhetoric. She is an appealing person, coming off as relaxed and warm among the small cluster of supporters and friends. It’ll be interesting to see if more challenging circumstances bring out her harder side.

Speech over, the serious business of the evening commenced. Beaven’s campaign manager, Lisa Walker, hit up her supporters for contributions. Her supporters accepted the contribution envelopes noncommittally. Mario Piscatella, a between-jobs politico described by Beaven as “not really” staff and “not exactly” a volunteer seemed to be more-or-less running the event’s set-up, but after the speech focused on networking, eager to speak with a potential seeker for state-wide office. Beaven’s Stetson interns were there in force.

Beaven’s campaign is strong by recent standards in the Seventh. Ms. Walker has kept her Stetson crew in place while recruiting other young politically active people like Mr. Piscatella and Frank Karbassis. Beaven definitely has the beginnings of a campaign here. If she begins to raise money aggressively, she could do the impossible and send John Mica to K Street where he belongs. The evening, while not earth-shattering by any means, was very different from the stealth campaigns of Silva and Armitage and the strange ego trip of Stephen Bacon.

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